The Supreme Court decided a case on Thursday that is not about informants but that could have implications down the road for informant expert testimony. In Diaz v. United States (June 20, 2024), the Court held that a federal agent could testify as an expert that “most drug couriers” know they are transporting drugs. The defendant, Delilah Guadalupe Diaz, claimed that she did not know that drugs were in the car that she was driving. The Court reasoned that the agent was not testifying explicitly about what Diaz knew or did not know — that would have been prohibited by the Federal Rules of Evidence, Rule 704(b)— but only what “most people” in that group know. The majority rejected the dissent’s argument that the expert “functionally” stated an opinion about Diaz’s state of mind, because “[t]hat argument mistakenly conflates an opinion about most couriers with one about all couriers.” Rather, the Court held that “an expert’s conclusion that most people in a group have a particular mental state” is not an opinion about a particular individual in that group.
Diaz potentially enhances the admissibility of defense expertise regarding informants, specifically about whether informants know that they will receive benefits in exchange for the information they provide. As I and many other scholars have pointed out, most informants know that they will be rewarded for incriminating other people, even if the government has not expressly or formally promised them anything up front. Nevertheless, the government often maintains that informants come forward for no reward, and informants will often tell the jury that they do not expect any reward. In a similar vein, prosecutors often reassure juries that informants are reliable because lying informants will fear prosecution for perjury, but most informants (as well as lawyers and judges) know that such prosecutions are extremely rare. Expert testimony on what “most informants know” could thus be helpful to juries in deciding whether informants should be believed.
Courts are typically more willing to allow government experts than defense experts in criminal cases. Indeed, the National Academies of Sciences issued a report in 2009 worrying that “trial judges rarely exclude or restrict expert testimony offered by prosecutors.” But Diaz cuts both ways. In her concurrence, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson emphasizes that the decision is “party agnostic” and that “[b]oth the Government and the defense are permitted [] to elicit expert testimony ‘on the likelihood’ that a defendant had a particular mental state.”
Here is a link to an explainer about informant expert testimony that I wrote for The Appeal. And here is a link to my colleague Professor Noah Feldman’s op-ed arguing more generally that Diaz was wrongly decided, and that it impermissibly waters down the prosecution’s obligation to prove its case beyond a reasonable doubt “because [the decision] invites the jury to conflate abstract statistical probabilities with the specific circumstances of the individual case.”